As of the 14th of January 2022, Russia had deployed over 100,000 troops to the Ukrainian border, they claimed to be carrying out a ‘military exercise’. It appeared more like an impending invasion by Russia.
While this was going on, Russia, other European and Western countries were at the Eastern Partnership Summit in Geneva trying to sort things out. However, they were not able to come to a resolution. Vladimir Putin has three demands for the withdrawal of Russian troops from the border of Ukraine. He demanded that:
i. NATO stops expanding
ii. NATO removes its troops from Eastern Europe
iii. The US does not protect its allies in Eastern Europe
He threatened war if these demands are not met. NATO and other European countries refuted these demands and also threatened to go to war with Russia if it invades Ukraine.
Now, why exactly is Russia really interested in Ukraine?
Modern Russia has its roots in Kyiv (the current capital of Ukraine). The Soviet Union (USSR) was a single country with modern Russia and Ukraine in it. So, Ukraine was pretty much like a state in the USSR.
In 1949, after the end of World War 2, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was created to deter the rapidly expanding Soviet Union. Its founding members were Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Their creation was obviously a thorn in the flesh of the Soviet Union, as it was created in response to its expansion.
However, in 1991, the Soviet Union fell and these former states became independent countries.
Fifteen (15) countries including Russia were created.
Russia is still strongly interested in Ukraine even more than the other states. As earlier stated, Modern Russia has its origins in Ukraine. The country contains so much cultural heritage of the Russian people.
Bringing this home to Nigeria is like separating Ile-Ifẹ which is the home of the Yoruba people from the present-day Osun State, and making it independent from Nigeria. This will definitely not sit well with the Yoruba people.
This is why Russia found it hard to accept Ukraine as an independent state from them. Vladimir Putin especially didn't like this.
In a speech in 2005, Putin referred to the fall of the USSR as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century”. This illustrates how unhappy he is with the fall of the USSR, to him it wasn’t just a separation of the Soviet Union but a separation of the Russian people.
To rub salt into the wound, the West (particularly the US) started getting cozy with the newly formed countries. They exported their ideologies and culture. Capitalism became more common in these countries. Then, some of these countries started teasing joining NATO. In fact, in 2004 Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania joined NATO.
The increased level at which these countries were driting West made Putin very uncomfortable. These countries joining NATO was even more worrying to him. He once designated NATO a threat to Russian national security. Again, we see how much he does not like NATO.
So, he would obviously be very uncomfortable as Ukraine — a prized piece of the USSR — starts to adopt more western practices and even started flirting with joining NATO and the EU.
The present agitation of the Russian military at the border of Ukraine is part of the move of Russia to hinder any further limit the expansion of the influence of Ukraine. There are fears of an impending war in Europe as NATO countries are gearing up for a war and have deployed troops into the surrounding areas.
However, a war seems highly unlikely, here is why: first, according to the Congressional Research Service, Russia has at least five sanctions placed on it by the US. These sanctions were placed on Russia for reasons such as their invasion of Crimea in 2014, malicious cyber activities and influence operations in the United States, use of a chemical weapon, and weapons proliferation to mention a few.
These sanctions have had an adverse impact on the Russian economy. The Atlantic Council reports that sanctions have hit the Russian economy negatively. Since 2014, the economy has grown by 0.3% yearly on average, compared with the global average of 2.3%. Russia has also suffered a reduction in foreign direct investment and foreign credits which led to a drop in the economic growth rate by 2.5–3% yearly. This is estimated to be around $50 billion per year. This shows that the Russian economy cannot significantly grow until the Kremlin is able to enter into an agreement with the West for the reduction of the sanctions.
Now, the US is reportedly preparing the “mother of all sanctions” against Russia if they launch an attack on Ukraine. This is expected to have an even more devastating impact on the already bad economy of Russia. These sanctions affect international economic activities in Russia, it would negatively impact the general economy thus leading to increased poverty within the country.
Apart from these costs, war is expensive. For instance, In 2020, Neta Crawford in her Costs of War Project estimated the long-term cost of the Iraq War for the United States at $1.922 trillion. This high cost is part of the reasons the US began withdrawing its troops from this region as they seem to be in a never-ending war.
With Russia economy struggling with growth induced by sanctions, adding the costs of engaging in a war may further damage the economy. This could turn the public against the government as the war would make life harder for them.
Ultimately, Putin would need to do a cost-benefit analysis before deciding whether or not to engage in a war with the West. He would need to consider the potential costs to his country as well as the benefit to be enjoyed as a result of the cost incurred.
Really, no one knows what would happen next.
Who knows what goes on in the mind of Vladimir Putin?
